He’s not alone. Bush’s support among Cuban-Americans in south Florida–about 80 percent of whom backed him in 2000–shows signs of eroding. A March Florida International University poll, for instance, showed that only 56 percent of the state’s Cuban-Americans planned to vote for Bush, with 25 percent undecided. While the vast majority will almost certainly back Bush in November, even a shift of 5 percent could tip the balance if Florida is a close race.
Cuban-American grievances range from the administration’s decision last year to repatriate 12 immigrants intercepted at sea to its failure to support dissidents on the island more vigorously. A few weeks ago President Bush sought to staunch the bleeding by announcing a raft of anti-Castro policies including additional funding for dissidents–a package he touted on Cuban Independence Day last Thursday. But some of those policies ignited another firestorm: Cuban-Americans who regularly visit relatives on the island and send them much-needed money now face new travel and remittance restrictions. On Independence Day, hundreds crowded into the conference room of a Miami hotel to denounce the measures. “This is dividing families,” said Luis Miguel Hernandez, who fears he won’t be able to visit his terminally ill mother-in-law. “I’m totally disappointed” with Bush, whom he voted for in 2000 but likely won’t back this year. A Bush campaign spokeswoman says, “No one has a stronger record of fighting the Castro dictatorship than the president.” One palliative for Bush: those most affected by the new policies are often recently arrived and not yet eligible to vote.
But it’s not yet certain whether Kerry can capitalize on the emerging discontent. He’s still struggling to achieve a clear Cuba policy. Last week, says a Kerry adviser, the campaign was ready to air a radio ad in Miami that bashed President Bush for meting out “more punishment and more pain” to Cuban families with the new restrictions. In tandem, Cuban-American Rep. Bob Menendez, according to the adviser, planned to tout Kerry’s credentials at a press conference. But the campaign felt uncomfortable with some hard-line language that Menendez wanted in the ad, and ultimately pulled the plug on the radio buy and media event. (A Kerry spokesman disputes this portrayal; Menendez did not return NEWSWEEK’s calls seeking comment.) For Kerry to capture Cuban votes, he’ll have to do better than that.
